The Green Fuel Pipeline Mirage: Why Billions in Hydrogen Could Go Nowhere

The world is pouring unprecedented billions into green hydrogen and ammonia production, hailing them as the inevitable future of decarbonization for heavy industry, shipping, and even AI infrastructure. Yet, a silent, colossal bottleneck is emerging: the sheer inability to physically move these fuels from where they are produced to where they are desperately needed. We're building the wells, but not the pipelines. This looming infrastructure crisis threatens to strand massive investments and derail critical climate targets.

A Production Boom Without the Delivery System

Optimism abounds in green fuel production. India's AM Green Kakinada Project, for example, is targeting an astounding 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of green ammonia by 2026, backed by a $10 billion investment and 7.5 GW of dedicated solar and wind capacity. Saudi Arabia's NEOM project aims for 1.2 MTPA of green ammonia by 2026 or 2027, integrating 4 GW of renewables. Globally, green and blue ammonia production is projected to reach 14 MTPA by 2030.

However, the physical infrastructure required to transport, store, and trade these emerging energy carriers is dangerously underdeveloped. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its 2025 Global Hydrogen Review that while low-emissions hydrogen production is on track to reach 1 Mt in 2025, it still accounts for less than 1% of total global hydrogen demand. Crucially, its uptake is being held back by