Is Green Hydrogen Overhyped? Why Ammonia May Win the Energy Race

The quiet revolution, I've observed, is truly underway: green ammonia, long overshadowed by hydrogen in the public discourse, is rapidly emerging as the undeniable dark horse in the race to decarbonize heavy industry and power the insatiable demands of AI. While green hydrogen has certainly captured headlines and much of the early attention, I've found that its more practical, easier-to-handle derivative is now unequivocally taking center stage for critical applications like global shipping and the 24/7 energy needs of advanced AI infrastructure. This isn't just about cleaner fuel, as I see it; it's a strategic pivot that I believe promises to reshape global trade, fundamentally alter energy security, and even influence the very architecture of our digital future.

The Unseen Shift: Why Ammonia is Taking the Lead

For years, I recall hearing green hydrogen touted as the ultimate clean fuel. Yet, my research consistently shows that its inherent challenges—difficult and costly storage, liquefaction, and transport—have significantly slowed its widespread adoption as a direct fuel for many uses. This is where green ammonia (NH3) enters the picture. Produced by combining green hydrogen with nitrogen from the air, I’ve discovered it's far easier to store and transport as a liquid, even at relatively mild temperatures and pressures, compared to cryogenic liquid hydrogen. This critical advantage, in my opinion, is driving a rapid, under-the-radar surge in its viability, particularly for sectors that demand high energy density and robust logistics.

I’ve been tracking multiple major projects scheduled for 2025 and 2026, and they vividly illustrate this shift. The NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia, a joint venture of ACWA Power, Air Products, and NEOM, is set to produce up to 1.2 million tonnes of renewable ammonia per year, with commercial operations likely starting in late 2025 or early 2026. This facility, designed to run entirely on renewable energy, will serve as a massive export hub. Similarly, I found that India's AM Green Kakinada Project, an integrated facility powered by 7.5 GW of solar and wind, aims for an impressive 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) starting January 2026. China is also seeing multiple renewable ammonia production projects come online, with over 600,000 tons per year operational by early 2026. My analysis of market reports indicates the global green ammonia market, valued at USD 3.4 billion in 2025, is projected to surge to USD 5.2 billion in 2026, and an astounding USD 170.5 billion by 2035, growing at a remarkable CAGR of 54.5%. I’ve also noted significant investment from companies like Fortescue Future Industries (FFI), which is developing large-scale green ammonia facilities, including a potential 2 GW project in Australia, aiming for final investment decision in 2026. This demonstrates a clear commitment from industry giants to scaling up production.

Fueling the Future: Beyond the Data Center

Artificial intelligence workloads, as I understand it, demand continuous, dispatchable power. The intermittency of renewable sources like solar and wind presents a significant challenge for data centers, pushing them towards on-site solutions and reliable backup. Green ammonia, I believe, offers a compelling answer. It acts as a flexible energy carrier, storing surplus renewable energy and reconverting it on demand to provide 24/7 power. A recent report by GHD, published in June 2025, highlights how behind-the-meter (BTM) data centers powered by on-site renewables and backed by green ammonia-based energy storage are gaining traction. A modeled 80 MW BTM facility, supported by 250 MW of renewable generation and a closed-loop ammonia system, demonstrated a carbon intensity of just 3 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour—over 100 times cleaner than most natural gas setups. This approach not only reduces carbon emissions but also mitigates grid constraints and fossil fuel reliance, giving data center operators greater control over energy costs and reliability. Eneus Energy, for instance, is already focusing on developing data centers with an integrated green ammonia solution.

Beyond AI, I've identified several other critical applications where green ammonia is poised to make a profound impact. Global shipping, for one, is a sector I've watched closely, grappling with immense pressure to decarbonize. Ammonia's high energy density and existing infrastructure for handling make it an ideal candidate for maritime fuel. Major shipping lines like Maersk and MAN Energy Solutions are actively investing in ammonia-fueled engines, with the first ammonia-ready vessels expected to hit the water by late 2026 or early 2027. I also see its potential in co-firing coal-fired power plants, a transitional step for reducing emissions. For example, Japan's JERA is exploring co-firing ammonia at its Hekinan Thermal Power Plant, aiming for 20% ammonia co-firing by 2025 and 50% by 2030. Furthermore, let's not forget ammonia's original and enduring role in agriculture as a fertilizer. Producing green ammonia for this sector alone would significantly decarbonize food production globally. I also anticipate its growing use as a green feedstock for various industrial processes, replacing fossil fuel-derived ammonia.

A New Geopolitical Landscape and Emerging Technologies

I believe green ammonia will profoundly reshape the geopolitical energy landscape. Countries rich in renewable energy resources, even those historically lacking fossil fuels, could become major energy exporters. I foresee new energy trade routes emerging, fostering greater energy independence for importing nations and diversifying global energy supplies. This could significantly reduce reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets, a strategic advantage I find particularly compelling. For instance, Australia, with its vast solar and wind potential, is positioning itself to be a major green ammonia exporter to Asian markets.

From a technological standpoint, I've been following the advancements closely. While ammonia is an excellent energy carrier, its conversion back to electricity or direct use in engines requires specific technologies. I've noted significant progress in ammonia-fueled internal combustion engines and fuel cells, making them more efficient and commercially viable. However, I must acknowledge that challenges remain, such as mitigating NOx emissions when ammonia is combusted directly, and ensuring stringent safety protocols for its handling. These are areas where I expect continued innovation and regulatory development in the coming years.

What This Means For Investors, Entrepreneurs, and Professionals

For investors, I see green ammonia as a burgeoning sector with immense growth potential, particularly in infrastructure development, production facilities, and specialized transport. Companies involved in electrolyzer manufacturing, ammonia synthesis, and engine/fuel cell development are ripe for investment. I would advise focusing on firms with strong R&D, established partnerships, and clear pathways to scaling production.

Entrepreneurs, in my view, have a unique opportunity to innovate across the entire value chain. This includes developing advanced safety systems for ammonia handling, creating more efficient conversion technologies, or even designing bespoke energy solutions for specific industries like data centers or maritime shipping. I believe there's also a significant market for consulting and project management expertise in navigating the complexities of large-scale green ammonia projects.

Professionals in engineering, chemical processing, logistics, and environmental consulting will find a growing demand for their skills. I anticipate a need for specialized talent in designing, operating, and maintaining green ammonia plants, developing new safety standards, and integrating ammonia solutions into existing industrial infrastructures. My advice is to acquire expertise in renewable energy integration, chemical engineering, and supply chain optimization to capitalize on this expanding field.

The Bottom Line

I've found that green ammonia is no longer just a theoretical solution; it is rapidly becoming a tangible, scalable energy carrier poised to disrupt multiple industries. Its practical advantages over hydrogen, coupled with significant global investments, suggest to me that it will play a pivotal role in achieving global decarbonization goals. I firmly believe its moment has arrived.